UKAEA Journals

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Disruption prediction and avoidance is a critical need for next-step tokamaks such as ITER. The Disruption Event Characterization and Forecasting Code (DECAF) is used to fully automate analysis of tokamak data to determine chains of events that lead to disruptions and to forecast their evolution allowing sufficient time for mitigation or full av…


An avalanche or ‘‘sandpile’’ model is discussed that generalizes the original self-organized criticality avalanche model of Bak, Tang, and Wiesenfeld [Phys. Rev. Lett. 59 , 381 (1987)] to include spatially extended local redistribution. A single control parameter specifies the spatial extent of local redistribution when the critical gradien…