Enrique Miralles-Dolz Alexander Pearce James Morris Edoardo Patelli
To make informed decisions during the concept selection activities of a fusion power plant it is necessary to evaluate the impact of uncertainties on the feasibility and performance of each concept. A framework for uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis has been developed for the PROCESS systems code to allow the direct comparison o…
PreprintAnder Gray Scott Ferson Edoardo Patelli
Elementary formulas for propagating information about means and variances through mathematical expressions have long been used by analysts. Yet the precise implications of such information are rarely articulated. This paper explores distribution-free techniques for risk analysis that do not require simulation, sampling or approximation of any kind.…
Preprint PublishedH. Lux M. Morgan M. Siccinio W. Biel G. Federici R. Kembleton A. W. Morris E. Patelli H. Zohm
During the pre-conceptual design phase of fusion devices such as the European demonstration fusion power plant (DEMO), systems codes provide a fast evaluation of optimal design points and highlight high impact areas. However, determining or evaluating a design point at such an early stage comes with uncertainties in many of the design parameters. T…
Preprint PublishedA. Gray A. Davis E. Patelli
Nuclear data is at the heart of all nuclear science and technology. It represents the interaction probabilities of neutrons with matter and is used to construct distributions in particle transport Monte Carlo codes. Due to the difficulty and cost of conducting experiments, experimental reaction data is usually sparse or not present for the majority…
Preprint PublishedDominic C Calleja Wayne Arter Marco De-Angelis Edoardo Patelli
Nuclear fusion, the process by which the Sun generates energy, is proposed as one solution to secure the future of global energy supply. If successful it will provide an unlimited source of clean energy. Probably the most promising approach to harnessing fusion for energy production is that of the Tokamak device, a magnetic confinement device of to…
Published